Friday, May 16, 2008

April Prosper.com Collections Update

Yes, I'm alive. I took a week off for my brother's graduation. Unfortunately, no internet where we were staying. D'oh. I'm digging back in. On to the substance:

This is part of my ongoing series monitoring collections efficiency (March's report for comparison). For a reminder on the methodology, I took a snapshot of all of Prosper's loans on April 1 and compared their current status against those same loans on May 2 (operator error, once again). Presumably, loans that don't get further behind have some kind of money extracted in the collections process (not so valid on this run - see below). The statistics are below.

TotalGot BetterStayed The SameGot Worse
Current 14456 226
1.5%
13895
96.1%
335
2.3%
Late 223 56
25.1%
31
13.9%
136
60.9%
1 month late 292 32
10.9%
26
8.9%
234
80.1%
2 months late 235 18
7.6%
11
4.6%
206
87.6%
3 months late 260 7
2.6%
7
2.6%
246
94.6%
4+ months late 946 6
0.6%
930
98.3%
10
1.0%
The Signs Of Collections (SOC) statistics are below. Signs of collections percentage is calculated as the percentage of the loans that either improved or stayed the same.
Month
1 Month
2 Months
3 Months
Total
April '08
19.8%
14.2%
5.2%
39.2%
March '08
24.4%
12.4%
11.3%
48.1%
February '08
13.7%
9.3%
4.7%
27.7%
January '08
20.6%
12.8%
8.0%
41.4%
December '08
23.0%
2.8%
3.8%29.6%
Since I screwed up and didn't get the data until May 2, this report will be slightly negative. This is because Prosper calculates loan lateness based on the date in a month (and not 30 / 60 / 90 days) and loans that came due between the May 1 and May 2 will not be properly counted. Overall, there has been a mild trend toward improving odds of squeezing money out of a loan that has gone late.

The "4+ months late" category is very hard to quantify percentage wise. The default sales make month over month comparison very difficult, so I'm not going to try.

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