Thursday, November 15, 2007

Prosper's October Income

Following up on last month's post documenting how Prosper makes money, I plan to keep looking at their monthly income monthly to see how they're progressing as a business. This will be the last time I can use my simplified method for accounting for servicing income. Prosper adjusted the servicing charge for A and AA loans in their latest large feature upgrade (1% and 0%, respectively), so I'll be getting more sophisticated in my analysis for December. Since this occurred at the very end of October (30th to be exact), I'm punting on thinking hard until the December update.

Onto October, then. First, origination income:

Credit Grade
Loans Originated
Borrower Fee
Income
AA
$984,695
1.0%
$9,847
A
$1,374,538
1.0%
$13,745
B
$1,137,145
1.0%
$11,371
C
$1,647,101
1.0%
$16,471
D
$796,758
1.0%$7,968
E
$235,999
2.0%$4,720
HR
$198,252
2.0%$3,965
Total


$68,087
And now loan servicing income:
Credit Grade
Outstanding Loans
Lender Fee
Income
AA
$9,843,853
0.5%*
$4,102
A
$10,878,195
0.5%*
$4,533
B
$13,877,583
1.0%
$11,565
C
$15,328,463
1.0%
$12,774
D
$12,046,296
1.0%$10,039
E
$5,967,380
1.0%$4,973
HR
$4,122,801
1.0%$3,436
Total


$46,317
The sum total is $119.5k for October, a healthy bump over September's $107.6k and near parity over $118.0k in August. September got hammered by the group reward rearrangement, so I'm taking this as an early indication that things have settled from that change.

October
September
Delta
Origination Income
$68,088
$58,463
+16.5%
Servicing Income
$51,419
$49,137
+4.6%
Total
$119,507
$107,601
+11.1%
Prosper has been on a media blitz with Chris Larsen popping up like bluebonnets at spring in Texas, so expect more attention flowing inward. This will contrast with us heading into the holiday season and lots of days where people won't be lending or borrowing.

I'll go on record now that I'm expecting a huge spike in listings come January 1 when, after waking up from the New Years shenanigans, lots of people will suddenly go "Dookie! I spent that much?!" New Years resolutions involving debt will flow like New Years Eve party champagne.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi, this nice that you calculate these revenue data! What about December? :)

Thx

Mike said...

November's a little more complicated since Prosper has changed the loan servicing fees for AA / A. I'd prefer to get it right, so I'm working on a script that'll do it properly.

It'll happen sooner or later.

Anonymous said...

Great. I just wanted to let you know I find these estimates very useful. So don't give up :)
Thanks.