Tuesday, February 5, 2008

January Prosper Collections Report

This is part of my ongoing series monitoring collections efficiency (December's report for comparison). For a reminder on the methodology, I took a snapshot of all of Prosper's loans on January 1 and compared their current status against those same loans on February 1. Presumably, loans that don't get further behind have some kind of collections activity happen succeed. The statistics are below.


TotalGot BetterStayed The SameGot Worse
Payoff in progress 30 30
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
Current 12620 182
1.4%
12122
96.0%
316
2.5%
Late 265 82
30.9%
33
12.4%
150
56.6%
1 month late 304 51
16.7%
12
3.9%
241
79.2%
2 months late 249 16
6.4%
16
6.4%
217
87.1%
3 months late 271 12
4.4%
10
3.6%
249
91.8%
4+ months late 356 11
3.0%
339
95.2%
6
1.6%
This is a rather notable improvement over December, with good signs of collections on "2 months late" and "3 months late" loans.
Months Late
December
Signs Of Collection
January
Signs Of Collection
1 Month
23.0%
20.6%
2 Month
2.8%
12.8%
3 Months
3.8%
8.0%
If these numbers are taken at face value, this translates into a 63.5% chance of a "1 month late" loan going to "4+ months late" without any collections yielding cash, improving from December's 72% chance. Not good enough, but better.

The "4+ months late" category is very hard to quantify percentage wise. The default sale in December thinned out the herd, improving the percentages, but making month over month comparison very difficult. It is noteworthy that 11 "4+ months late" loans showed signs of improvement, which appears to be a record.

Also of note, 1 4+ month late loan was repurchased in January.

Update: Chris' pickiness is technically correct (see comments) (grumble grumble), so I fixed it. Strikethroughs for deletions, italics for additions.

2 comments:

Chris said...

That's an interesting report.
Keep in mind though, it's not completely fair to say that lack of "collection activity" means that collectors aren't doing anything. If a debtor has no money to pay the debt, then there's nothing the collector can do about that.

Mike said...

In my self-centered universe, I was looking at it from my point of view which amounts to "collections activity" = "money arriving in my account". Anything else is opaque to me other than a line on a screen saying "In collections". I cannot prove nor disprove what the collectors are doing because there is no mechanism for me to do so.

But, your point is taken...