January Prosper Collections Report

This is part of my ongoing series monitoring collections efficiency (December's report for comparison). For a reminder on the methodology, I took a snapshot of all of Prosper's loans on January 1 and compared their current status against those same loans on February 1. Presumably, loans that don't get further behind have some kind of collections activity happen succeed. The statistics are below.

	Total	Got Better	Stayed The Same	Got Worse
Payoff in progress	30	30 100.0%	0 0.0%	0 0.0%
Current	12620	182 1.4%	12122 96.0%	316 2.5%
Late	265	82 30.9%	33 12.4%	150 56.6%
1 month late	304	51 16.7%	12 3.9%	241 79.2%
2 months late	249	16 6.4%	16 6.4%	217 87.1%
3 months late	271	12 4.4%	10 3.6%	249 91.8%
4+ months late	356	11 3.0%	339 95.2%	6 1.6%

This is a rather notable improvement over December, with good signs of collections on "2 months late" and "3 months late" loans.

Months Late	December Signs Of Collection	January Signs Of Collection
1 Month	23.0%	20.6%
2 Month	2.8%	12.8%
3 Months	3.8%	8.0%

If these numbers are taken at face value, this translates into a 63.5% chance of a "1 month late" loan going to "4+ months late" without any collections yielding cash, improving from December's 72% chance. Not good enough, but better.

The "4+ months late" category is very hard to quantify percentage wise. The default sale in December thinned out the herd, improving the percentages, but making month over month comparison very difficult. It is noteworthy that 11 "4+ months late" loans showed signs of improvement, which appears to be a record.

Also of note, 1 4+ month late loan was repurchased in January.

Update: Chris' pickiness is technically correct (see comments) (grumble grumble), so I fixed it. Strikethroughs for deletions, italics for additions.